As you may already know, Sacramento's booming population and rising rent is the talk of the town.
The state's Capitol is attracting a flood of people looking to leave their current metro city for a new, more affordable one. True to the rumors, many of the people packing up for Sacramento are leaving their homes in the Bay Area. However, Bay Area transplants are not the sole reason why Sacramento's rent is skyrocketing. One of the main reasons rent has spiked is because of the lack of new rental units in the area. There is simply not enough new units being built to satisfy the demand due to the rising population.
So, who are all these new people moving to Sacramento?
ABC10 asked Yardi Matrix data analysts to illustrate a picture of who is most likely to be pulling up next door in a moving truck. It's important to note, while Sacramento's population has grown by 1.5 percent in 2016, there's no way to be certain migration is the only cause of the boom, but it's definitely a factor. That said, this is what the real estate researchers found:
It may come as a surprise, but your new neighbor is probably from the Greater Sacramento area, according to the most recent data from 2010 to 2014. The majority people moving into Sacramento County have already been living in the area and are coming from Placer, San Joaquin and Yolo Counties. Many Sacramento County residents move to the surrounding counties as well so really, it's just an exchange of Sacramento region residents making a move to a nearby city.
The second largest group moving into the Sacramento region is from Silicon Valley or the Bay Area. There is a significant number of people moving in from Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties. However, contrary to popular belief, there isn't as much movement coming from San Francisco County so it seems the city's residents are staying put for the time being.
If your neighbor is from outside the country, it's likely they immigrated from Asia. The second biggest group is coming from Europe, then Central America, according to Yardi Matrix numbers.
From 2009 to 2015, there was a 30 percent increase in households with single, older women whose kids no longer live at home. There was also a 27 percent increase in married couples with children under 18.
People between the ages of 30 to 34 and 65 to 69 saw the biggest increase in population. In fact, residents 55 and older overall saw the biggest change out of any age group.
More than 28,700 workers were added to the Sacramento payroll last year and it's highly likely your new neighbor works in finances, health services, education or hospitality as those industries saw the biggest year-to-year change. Sacramento health care professionals get paid nearly 30 percent more than the U.S. average, so the industry is attractive locally.
Ok, what does all this mean?
When looking at all the data as a whole, one can guess that the new neighbors are probably a retired, single older woman looking to settle down for the remainder of her life or a young married couple with small children who are priced out of buying a home in the Bay Area or Silicon Valley. However, don't be shocked if your new neighbor simply moved from Davis to Sacramento in search of a cheaper home, or Sacramento to Roseville looking to leave urban life for the suburbs. If your neighbors are still working, it's likely they work in finances or health care.
If you’re concerned about the rent boom in the area, unfortunately, rent will only continue to rise in the next 10 years, according to Yardi Matrix. Rent is currently averaging $1,361 and is expected to hit $2,041 by 2027. Occupancy is forecasted to continue to remain in the 96 to 97% range.
Rancho Cordova, Elk Grove and Folsom will see the biggest population increase over the course of the rest of the year.