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Denham vs Harder: Democrat ahead in heated house race for California's 10th District

Good news for Democrats in California's 10th congressional district. A new poll released Thursday shows Democratic candidate Josh Harder slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham.

Good news for Democrats in California's 10th congressional district. A new poll released Thursday shows Democratic candidate Josh Harder slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham.

Of the more than 5,000 likely voters surveyed for the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, 50 percent said they are more inclined to vote for Harder while 45 percent chose Denham. Five percent said they were still undecided.

While the margin of error essentially puts the two candidates neck-and-neck, the results of the poll is hopeful news for Democrats hoping to win back the House in November.

California's 10th congressional district is one of four house races across the state considered to be a "toss-up." Political forecasting site FiveThirtyEight currently gives Harder, a former venture capitalist who grew up in Turlock, a 70 percent chance of winning the race.

Ultimately, turnout will be a defining factor in the race. According to the recent poll, enthusiasm is high. One-hundred percent of those surveyed said they are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the Midterm. Sixty-two percent said this year's congressional race is "more important" to them than past congressional elections.

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