Warm Pacific might have a busy couple of weeks

I have an odd obsession with the East Pacific hurricane season because I am a surfer. Typically in the summertime the waves go flat and you have to find new passions to fill the gap. I look to the South Pacific for any inkling of a hurricane or deeper south swell to kick up some waves and send me to the beach again.

For this reason, I have been closely following the East Pacific hurricane season and how active it has been. We have seen three super strong category 4 storms and the next seven days or so we could see some really interesting set-ups.

Right now we have tropical storms Karina and Lowell spinning between Baja and Hawaii. Lowell will get stronger, but both seem to get pulled into a broader area of low pressure and will rotate around each other. This is called the Fujiwhara effect, and will help to move a broad scale of moisture to the North.

This is interesting alone, but the next system is only indicated by computer models at the time. If it forms in the beginning of next week it would be called Marie, and has great potential to form into a large, and strong hurricane. The path is most interesting to me, the models take it off to the Northwest for several days, while the storm remains strong.

As Marie continues to move to the North it will eventually hit colder water and stronger Westerly winds and start to fall apart. The swell created by Marie could be on par with two famous hurricanes in 1997: Guillermo and Linda, which produced amazing surf in unusual places and remain legendary among surfers as the best summer of surf in recent memory. The part that matters to most people is that the remnants could get picked up by the westerlies and drift into California making some changes in the weather with more clouds, humidity and according to one computer model, a chance of Northern California rain by next weekend.

I admit, talking about weather this far out is on the fringe of what we are comfortable doing and I wouldn't change any plans based on this. All I can say is that surfers are really looking forward to this scenario, and next week could get very interesting if the models are correct.


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