SACRAMENTO, Calif. — While 100 degree days are almost certainly over until next year, it still feels like summertime for most of Northern California.
By Oct. 14, Sacramento's average high is 80 degrees, marking the last day of the year with the average high of 80 degrees or higher. The forecast high is 87 on the 14th, which has been the story of early fall as highs have been sitting much above average.
A stubborn blocking pattern, known as a rex block, has set up over the west coast, resulting in the unseasonably warm and unchanging weather experienced since October began.
The rex block is bad news for those who are ready for fall weather. Rex blocks are characterized by a high-pressure system located pole-ward of a low pressure system, according to the National Weather Service.
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Northern California is under the influence of the high pressure associated with the block, meaning more warm, sunny days are expected.
The idealization pictured above is similar to the pattern the west coast is experiencing, but the low pressure is further south and the northern half of the state continues to sit under the high pressure regime.
The map below is a 500 millibar (mb) anomaly map. It looks complicated, but is a good indicator of what the weather will generally bring. The bright colors represent high pressure and warm temperatures and Northern California can be seen in shades of red.
The pattern is notoriously persistent, as seen below. The centers of the high and low pressure systems hardly budge, but things are likely to change as the trough, associated with the blue and purple colors, moves west and breaks up the block.
Fall could be on the way
October is typically when the state receives it's first fall storm system, and a pattern change could be on the way.
The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for next week paints California in green, signaling the potential for precipitation in the period from Oct. 20-26.
Once the rex block is out of the picture, models are hinting at the potential for rainy, fall-like weather towards the latter half of the month.
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