SACRAMENTO, Calif — California’s coronavirus crisis could peak with 100 deaths per day in late April, but it is one of the few states expected to meet the need for ICU beds thanks to aggressive protective measures put in place early to slow the spread of COVID-19.
University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation released on Monday a forecast model that showed California may not be hit as hard by the coronavirus as other states or countries thanks to early measures to social distance.
The model accounts for aggressive social distancing, which is why it's important to keep staying at home. In California, social distancing measures began after 19 people died from coronavirus.
It wasn't enacted in In New York state until 99 deaths were reported. In Italy, it took 827 deaths to issue a countrywide order.
Early action has helped Sacramento add the capacity of one full hospital in the region, according to Mayor Darrell Steinberg.
"Despite that good news, we are working with the state to identify other potential sites for hospital beds," Steinberg said.
That's because there could still be a surge, and Sacramento will still step up to help care for Californians, Steinberg said. State officials are looking at 15 priority sites that could serve as field hospitals in the event of a surge — including the Sleep train Arena.
California has been preparing for weeks for a hospital surge requiring an additional 50,000 beds. Gov. Gavin Newsom's office is using its own "dynamic" state model that projects a peak in the middle of may.
Of the state's 1,400 hospitalized coronavirus patients nearly 600 are in Intensive Care Unit beds — and those numbers will increase in the next few weeks according to Governor Newsom.
Keep in mind, the availability for Intensive Care beds vary for Californians.
The Sacramento region has 462 ICU Beds, the majority of which are in Sacramento County, according to data from California Health and Human Services.
Stanislaus County has 92 ICU beds, San Joaquin County has 80 beds and Solano County has 82 beds. Meanwhile, counties like Nevada, Amador, Colusa have less than 10 ICU beds.
Sutter, Sierra and Plumas counties have zero beds.
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Coronavirus Background
According to the CDC, coronavirus (COVID-19) is a family of viruses that is spreadable from person to person. Coronavirus is believed to have been first detected in a seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. If someone is sick with coronavirus, the symptoms they may show include mild to severe respiratory illness, cough, and difficulty breathing.
Currently, there is no vaccine; however, the CDC suggests the following precautions, along with any other respiratory illness:
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
- Stay home when you are sick.
- Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
- Wash your hands with soap and water for a minimum of 20 seconds.
WHY HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE SO CONCERNED
Some people have compared the low overall death toll to the flu's high annual death toll in the United States as a reason not to be concerned about COVID-19, however, doctors and health officials are concerned for three main reasons:
- Some people have built up immunity to the flu, but few have immunity to COVID-19 version of coronavirus.
- Both the flu and COVID-19 are spread by droplets, but COVID-19 might be spread in the air. Scientists are researching exactly how COVID-19 spreads.
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