Californians living in the Sacramento area or the Central Valley likely think they’re safe from earthquakes.
But seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones with the U.S. Geological Survey says that’s not true, given a major earthquake’s potential economic effects.
“People think this is a Los Angeles problem or a San Francisco problem, but we’ve seen natural catastrophes wipe out tax bases,” Jones said. “If we cause a regional depression for decades out of an earthquake, like what happened after 1906, we’re going to be doing some pretty bad damage to the state tax base -- and it’s all of our problems.”
On Tuesday, Jones met with state lawmakers to discuss the California’s disaster preparedness.
Assembly member Adrin Nazarian, who held the hearing, is pushing for an early earthquake warning system, as well as retrofit programs that would decrease the potential of structural damage.
As it is, Jones says California building codes do a pretty good job protecting human lives in the event of an earthquake.
But the buildings are not necessarily strong enough to be usable immediately after an earthquake – and Jones says 10 percent insurance coverage in California means there won’t be enough money to rebuild.
“It would add 1-2 percent to the cost of the building,” Jones said. “To save that 1-2 percent, we are creating a huge financial liability that’s going to come around not every decade, but probably every century.”
These big catastrophes are often enough to affect a lifetime, but they’re not often enough to really be controlling our decisions, Jones said.
A major earthquake could also drive people from the state.
“After the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, the population fell. The day before that earthquake, San Francisco was five times larger than Los Angeles,” Jones said. “Los Angeles is now five times larger than San Francisco. And the decade after 1906 was the greatest growth decade in Los Angeles – people gave up on San Francisco and moved south.”
“Every one of those people leaving is jobs not held and taxes not paid.”