It's almost impossible for the results to match the hype when it comes to El Niño and California storms, but this year it's linking up.
A few years ago we had the strongest El Niño ever recorded and the results were far from what was expected, with lackluster rain and snow in Southern California and a banner year for the Pacific Northwest. This was the exact opposite of what traditionally happens.
In a typical El Niño pattern, you get wetter-than-normal conditions for Central and Southern California and drier conditions for the Pacific Northwest. It appears that this year that is what's happening.
We have seen lots of wet weather and big storms pound the state, but when you look at the numbers the totals for Southern and Central California are really impressive.
El Niño is still going strong, with plenty of warm water in place in the Pacific. And more warm water on the way.
When the computer models crunch the numbers, we see a good chance the water will be 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, and that meets the threshold for El Niño conditions well into the Spring.
Two things are worth mentioning for El Niño's future. It's pretty likely we will continue to see storms aimed at California and the same pattern to play out. It could of course change, but we only have a few months left of prime rainy season, so the change would have to be drastic.
The other thing to remember is that El Niño is not just a West Coast rain forecast. It's a global event and many other things may fall into place. Historically, when global temperatures bump up we see droughts in Asia and coral bleaching intensifies, among other impacts.
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California officials say January storms have pushed the Sierra Nevada snowpack to 98 percent of average to date, which is good news for state water supplies.
