DALLAS — Be it through vaccinations or antibodies, getting enough people immune to COVID-19 to reach herd immunity has been seen as a way to stop the spread of the virus and ultimately get out of the pandemic.
But recent statements and predictions about herd immunity have raised questions about the effectiveness and attainability of herd immunity.
In April, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins tweeted, "We are in a race against time and the virus to vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity to deny the virus enough hosts to successfully mutate outside of the protections of the vaccine."
Two weeks later, a New York Times report said reaching herd immunity in the United States is now considered unlikely.
THE QUESTION
So is herd immunity even attainable and if it is reached, would it eradicate the virus?
THE ANSWER
At this point in the pandemic, the answer to both questions is "no."
THE SOURCE
Dr. Edward Dominguez is the Medical Director of Transplant Infectious Diseases at Methodist Dallas Medical Center. Because of how quickly the virus is mutating and producing new variants, he does not believe herd immunity can be reached.
"I do not think it is attainable at this point," said Dominguez, "As an infectious disease community, we feel we are facing a seasonal virus with little likelihood of achieving herd immunity in the United States based on virus practices currently."
WHAT WE FOUND
Originally, the need to reach herd immunity was estimated at around 65% to 70% of people immune. But Dominguez says new variants are more transmissible than the early strains causing the herd immunity threshold to rise closer to 80%.
However, while that number may be out of reach on a global or national level, Dominguez said it is more realistic a level of herd immunity can be reached at local levels.
Even still, herd immunity will not eradicate the virus. Though limiting the spread of the virus can help slow mutations and new variants, Dominguez says it will likely be a seasonal virus much like the flu requiring booster vaccines.
Another reason why the virus will not be eradicated is that the current vaccines were designed to mitigate the effects rather than eliminate COVID-19.
"The goal is not to eradicate the virus. We cannot do that because it is so widespread and mutates so rapidly. We are trying to prevent hospitalization and serious disease that would lead to hospitalization," Dominguez said.